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NWS Statements

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NWS Statements

Post by The Firebird on Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:18 am

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --THIS NARROW RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. H2O
VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENT TRACKING
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. LATEST NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS
THIS WAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AS IT
APPROACHES UPSTATE NY OVERNIGHT. NOT MUCH FORCING SEEN AT THE
PRESENT TIME WITH A HINT OF PV-ANOMALY /1.5 PVU/. SO WE WILL PLACE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SHOULD BE A
RATHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN INTO THE 60S WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AND SUBTLE
HINTS OF A WEAK PV-ANOMALY POINTS TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. MODEL RH FIELDS ARE QUITE MOIST
SO WE WILL CALL FOR PTSUNNY TO MOCLOUDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASE
POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY. OVERALL INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE
LITTLE EXCESSIVE ON THE NAM /TOO HIGH DEWPOINTS/ WITH MOST SBCAPES VALUES
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE ALSO
LOW WITH VALUES AT OR BELOW 20KTS SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...BUFR PROFILES DO SUGGEST AN INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE SO ANY PRECIP LOADING WITHIN THE CONVECTION COULD
SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST.

CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE FRIDAY EVENING AS WE ARE LEFT
WITH A VERY MILD AND MUGGY AIRMASS. THIS COULD BRING ABOUT SOME
LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
AVERAGE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

A STRENGTHEN UPPER PLAINS SYSTEM WILL HAVE IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM WITH
INCREASING THERMAL PROFILES AND WARM ADVECTION INTO NY DURING
SATURDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WHETHER AN MCS WILL EVOLVE
ACROSS OR NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND TRACK ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES OR JUST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL
FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN IDEA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
TEENS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED WHICH FORECAST HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS TIME. NO HEADLINES BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP MONITORING.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH EVEN HIGHER
PWATS. THE GFS SEEMS TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A
STRONG SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY QUICKLY ADVECTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC WITH THE NAM MORE SUPPRESSED AND
FURTHER SOUTH. PER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS ANY SMALL WAVE NOT
SEEN OR OBSERVED ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD
PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.


Last edited by The Firebird on Mon Aug 20, 2012 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Thu Aug 02, 2012 6:24 pm

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT... MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...MAINE...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AROUND AN INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES OR HEAT INDICES...WHICH COMBINE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 90S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...IF THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH A 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER...A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA.

THERE IS A LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

ALSO...TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...IE...TSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME AREAS...WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by The Firebird on Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:06 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
449 AM EDT SAT AUG 4 2012


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...MAINE...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
ALSO...VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

IF "TRAINING" OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS...(WHICH MEANS THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS)...THEN FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SEVERE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

...PA/NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...

SATURDAY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND SW OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMBINE WITH SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING TO REDUCE CINH. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS BUT ORGANIZATION OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK WINDS ALOFT AND MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY... GENERAL INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS IS LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY... SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME SUPERCELLS/PERHAPS EVEN TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL BE A BIT STRONGER. SEVERAL ORGANIZED QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS AND MCS/S MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT/MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS/ REACHING AS FAR EAST AS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by The Firebird on Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:02 pm

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING OVER WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS INCREASED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION TO DEVELOP IF SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN OCCUR.

DOPPLER RADAR WAS INDICATING THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN NEAR THE BORDER OF BERKSHIRE AND FRANKLIN COUNTY...OVER THE COLD RIVER AND NORTH BRANCH OF THE DEERFIELD RIVER. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES TO FALL AS STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE SAME AREAS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CHARLEMONT...ROWE...AND MONROE...MASS RT 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR CREEKS.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN TAUNTON, MA.
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sun Aug 05, 2012 11:43 am

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSSIBLE TODAY
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
338 AM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012


FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.


* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CONNECTICUT... WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT... AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING

* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION...A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA AND EVEN BACK BUILD. BY THE TIME THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...
MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.

* THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION AS "TRAINING" OF STORMS AND BACK BUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CAN EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN AS LITTLE AS AN HOURS TIME. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL RATES OF THIS INTENSITY CAN PRODUCE MUD SLIDES AND LAND SLIDES ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

_____________________________________________

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY:

SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN A WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND A SECONDARY LINE IS MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY... MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS/ SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NEWD ALONG THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY...VERY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT. MORE INTENSE CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHEN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by The Firebird on Tue Aug 07, 2012 3:21 am

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER. DEW POINTS WILL RISE SOME BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COMFORTABLE IN THE 50S DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY...IT WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MID WEEK. SHORT WAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME...THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK...VT...NH...ME, BUT COULD ALSO OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCE PRECIP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEPEND ON IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...ALSO IF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT TO OUR SOUTH...JOINING FORCES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AN IMPRESSIVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONTINENTAL US...WHICH IN TURN...WILL DEVELOP A PRETTY UNSEASONABLE DEEP CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SLOWLY MOVES INTO CANADA. THE 12Z ECMWF AND CMC WERE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH THE CUTOFF COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH TRACKED IT MORE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. EITHER WAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL IS THERE.

STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT WHEN A LOW CUTS OFF TO OUR WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS EVEN FLASH FLOODING. VALUES LOOK TO RAMP UP NEARLY 2.00 INCHES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE TRACKING EITHER THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY OR A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

THURSDAY...WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH STALLED OUT FRONT AND ONLY WEAK FORCING.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES...ASCENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME STRONGER.

FRIDAY...A STRONG JET MAX WORK INTO THE REGION...COMBINING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER AIR LOW AND SURFACE CYCLONE. THIS IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE (ALONG WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS). PWAT VALUES OFF THE 12Z GFS APPROACH 2.00 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THIS PWAT AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE WARM ATLANTIC OCEAN VIA AN INCREASING SSE FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AT LEAST 10000 FEET WITH AN AVERAGE BULK SHEAR ABOUT 35KTS. THIS TYPE OF FLOW COULD BRING ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE CATSKILLS...PARTS OF VT... AND EVEN PORTIONS OF THE BERKSHIRES.

ALL THE MODELS INDICATE A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS TO SHUT THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THERE STILL COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING WELL INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF WE WERE TO BREAK INTO ANY SUNSHINE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST COME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR SUNDAY SHOULD THE CUTOFF SLOW DOWN A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATED. BY MONDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL RETURN TO DRY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by The Firebird on Wed Aug 08, 2012 1:40 am

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE...MASSACHUSETTS...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...NEW HAMPSHIRE...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS DESTABILIZATION...AND THE LOCATION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS... WHICH MAY BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW.

THURSDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THEM COULD BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL CAUSING PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:34 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
448 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...MAINE... MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...RHODE ISLAND...AND VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS AN INCREASING WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LOW...AN ISOLATED WIND GUST TO 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN ADDITION...
ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES COULD OCCUR IN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT. WITHIN RIVER BANK RISES ARE LIKELY...AND THERE COULD BE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THESE DEVELOPING WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Brother Al
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Posts : 132
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:12 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
412 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012


See Seconday Information Below This Section Please

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CONNECTICUT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...MAINE... MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND AND VERMONT

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. AN INCREASED RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THIS REGION.

IN ADDITION...
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PERSISTENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES ARE LIKELY ALONG SOME MAIN STEM RIVERS...WITH PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. PRECEDING THIS BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012


...FROM THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC NWD TO NEW ENGLAND...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLVING SVR POTENTIAL IN THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY FRI. NEVERTHELESS...AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG DUE TO THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 45 KTS OVER WRN NY/NWRN PA TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BACK EAST OF THE SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A CONDITIONALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST IN THIS AREA WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP.
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

ELSEWHERE...
ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT LINES OF STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CORRIDORS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:16 pm

MULTIPLE WARNINGS

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
NORTHWESTERN TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...
EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...


* UNTIL 545 PM EDT

* AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR VERNON...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...ELLINGTON...SOMERS...EAST
LONGMEADOW...HAMPDEN...MONSON...WILBRAHAM...LUDLOW AND PALMER.


WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
ROTATION HAS BEEN NOTED ABOVE THE GROUND AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
EXTEND TO THE SURFACE. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE
HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.



FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 509 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BRISTOL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... PLYMOUTH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...
* UNTIL 815 PM EDT

* AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES FROM A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OVER THE WARNED AREA. ALREADY
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF ROADS BECOMING INUNDATED WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.


* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
IN RHODE ISLAND... KENT COUNTY...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...WASHINGTON COUNTY... IN CONNECTICUT... EASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY...TOLLAND COUNTY...WINDHAM COUNTY...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 452 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES FROM A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS OVER THE WARNED AREA. ALREADY
REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OF ROADS BECOMING INUNDATED WITH
SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN BELKNAP COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE... CENTRAL GRAFTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN THE AREA...LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING.


FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS...OR IN AREAS PRONE TO
FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AVOID FLOODED
ROADS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW VEHICLES TO CROSS SAFELY...
OR THE ROADWAY MAY BE UNDERMINED. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:57 pm

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING


FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND MASSACHUSETTS AND CENTRAL RHODE ISLAND.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
Member
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Posts : 132
Join date : 2010-10-01
Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:58 pm

Tornado Warning for...
west central Berkshire County in western Massachusetts...
northeastern Columbia County in east central New York...
* until 100 PM EDT

* at 1232 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado near
Austerlitz...or 7 miles southeast of Chatham...moving northeast at
15 mph.

* The tornado will be near...
Austerlitz by 1240 PM EDT...
Lenox and New Lebanon by 100 PM EDT...

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
Member
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Posts : 132
Join date : 2010-10-01
Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:26 pm

SEVERE WEATHER BREAKING OUT DAY 2

Severe Weather has once again begun to develop over Southern New England and Southern New York and is progessing North North Easterly into Cenmtral and Northern New England.

Threats included are Flash Flooding, Flooding of Streams and Small Rivers, Severe Thunderstorms, and Tornadoes.
Essentially this will be a repeat of yesterday.


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
113 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

EASTERN HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINDSOR LOCKS...NEWINGTON...
MANCHESTER...HARTFORD...EAST HARTFORD...
TOLLAND COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...VERNON...MANSFIELD...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
EASTERN HAMPDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SPRINGFIELD...
SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...


* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND PORTIONS
OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Posts : 132
Join date : 2010-10-01
Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Mon Aug 13, 2012 7:48 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
425 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2012


.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MID WEEK...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...A MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO FOCUS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER THE S ADIRONDACKS REGION...W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY...AND S GREEN MTNS. THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. THE INSTABILITY CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE...AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM PA. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER THE FCST AREA. THESE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE FOR MID-AUG.

SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...MIDWEST...AND ONTARIO. PRIOR TO THE CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME PATCHY RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG MAY OCCUR OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...CT RIVER VALLEY... MOST/ALL OF VT...THE BERKSHIRES...AND ALONG THE CT SHORELINE...

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE E. FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION 18Z-00Z. THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH THE NAM INDICATING SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG WITH SFC DEW POINTS GOING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE GFS INDICATES SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY WITH 500-1000 J/KG BUT POCKETS GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG/ WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RELATIVELY POOR WITH VALUES OF 5.5-6C/KM COMMON WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF AROUND +1 TO -1C. THIS LACK OF COOLING FROM ALOFT IS AN INHIBITOR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. ALSO...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ON THE NAM AND GFS IS ONLY 15-25 KTS. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION /MULTICELLS/ MAY FORM IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THOUGH SEVERE CONVECTION CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...SOME STRONG CELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE IS MAINLY IN THE LATE PM AND EARLY EVENING FOR OUR FCST AREA. WE WILL MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MENTION THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.25 TO 1.66" SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR WITH ANY CONVECTION. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO SUNSET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

MAX TEMPS DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF ISOLATION AHEAD OF THE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

TUE NIGHT...
WE HAVE INCREASED THE POPS TO LIKELY AND EVEN A SMALL PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL VALUES OVER THE WRN-SRN ADIRONDACKS REGION. THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH DECENT CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS CNTRL NY. PORTIONS OF THE S. ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY COULD USE SOME RAINFALL /SEE THE HYDRO SECTION/. WE CONTINUED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...AND A DECREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN OVERNIGHT WITH NARROW RIBBONS OF INSTABILITY PERSISTING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS.

WEDNESDAY...
THIS IS A RATHER NEBULOUS PORTION OF THE FCST DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE/SFC HEATING DURING THE PM. THE NAM IS STUBBORN KEEPING THE FCST AREA IN THE CLOUDS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE GFS IS WARMER WITH MORE ISOLATION AND MUCH MORE INSTABILITY WITH THE HIGHER DEWPT AIR. THE GFS HAS SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG VS THE NAM WITH 500-1000 J/KG WITH POCKETS GREATER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE DEEP SHEAR IS A LITTLE BUT STRONGER THAN TUE WITH 0-6 KM EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KTS /ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN TO AROUND 6.5 C/KM. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF ANY HEATING OCCURS FOR A CONDITIONAL ISOLD-SCT SVR THREAT. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PASSAGE. WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCE TO LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. WE LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS TEMPS WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 70S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS. WIDELY SCTD TO SCTD SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT AS DIURNAL HEATING RESULTS IN MODERATE INSTABILITY 1000-1500 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/ AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR STG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL. POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST THREAT INCLUDE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.

WED NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AT MOST LOCALES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES THURSDAY...BUT LACK OF FORCING SO FAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT ANY MORE THAN POTENTIALLY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...SO NOT INCLUDING ANY RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK A LITTLE WEAK AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT OF SORTS TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION AND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AMPLIFIES A LITTLE. THE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY STRONG SO ACKNOWLEDGING SOLID CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S...SOME 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE THE FRONT TRACKS THROUGH...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DROP CONSIDERABLY...AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE FORECASTED TO SINK SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE ADVANCE OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AND NOT INTRODUCING RAIN INTO THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNTIL EVOLUTION CLEARER. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY...WITH SOME 60S HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS DEPENDING ON HOW COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GET. HIGHS MONDAY AGAIN IN THE 70S...COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Posts : 132
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Wed Aug 15, 2012 7:10 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
559 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL HARTFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BRISTOL...


* UNTIL 900 PM EDT
* AT 555 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WERE LINING UP FROM CANTON TO BURLINGTON...AND WERE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS.

THIS INCLUDES...BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO...

THE WEST BRANCH OF THE FARMINGTON RIVER...
PHELPS BROOK...
BURLINGTON BROOK AND CHERRY BROOK
.

FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. THOSE NEAR STREAMS AND CREEKS...OR IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. AVOID FLOODED ROADS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW VEHICLES TO CROSS SAFELY... OR THE ROADWAY MAY BE UNDERMINED. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN!

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
Member
Member

Posts : 132
Join date : 2010-10-01
Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:25 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
449 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2012


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
CONNECTICUT... MAINE... MASSACHUSETTS... NEW
HAMPSHIRE... EASTERN NEW YORK... RHODE ISLAND... AND VERMONT

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.


NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK... MASSACHUSETTS... SOUTHERN VERMONT... AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WHERE 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA A WIDESPREAD OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL...SO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
Member
Member

Posts : 132
Join date : 2010-10-01
Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Tue Sep 04, 2012 11:47 pm

[size=18]Tropical Storm "LESLIE" to MISS New England



_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:08 pm

URGENT
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012


PRELIMINARY SEVERE WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2012

CLICK THIS LINK ON SATURDAY: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH EASTERN MD/NORTHERN DE...NORTHEASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY/CT/VT/MA/NH...

...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY...


POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND.

ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NY/PA...ESPECIALLY BY 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST ATTM WITH UPPER 60S-70F SFC DEW POINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT SPREAD NWD ACROSS PA/NJ INTO UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...
THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT OVER UPSTATE NY AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 09/00Z. WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND SECONDARILY WITH AREAS OF CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LINE ENHANCING STORM ROTATION OF THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN THE SQUALL LINE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL VA BY 09/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:55 pm





Several TORNADO WARNINGS have already been issued for areas north of New York City, storms now in Southwestern CT and travelling North East... secondarily, a TORNADO WARNING has recently been issued for an area in FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT...and its still early... this is expected to continue until sometime this evening....

TORNADO WATCH
means that Severe Thunderstorms are very capable of producing tornadoes...
TORNADO WARNINGmeans that a Severe Thunderstorm is showing strong rotation or is currently producing a Tornado and to seek shelter immediately...


Last edited by Brother Al on Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:05 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:01 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1154 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
EASTERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
...


* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

* AT 1153 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RIDGEFIELD...OR 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GEORGETOWN...DANBURY AND BETHEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Sep 08, 2012 1:32 pm

I cannot stay ahead of the Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings so PLEASE, be advised that weather conditions are VERY RIPE for Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes, so a minor rain shower could develop into a major Tornadic Storm within a 5 to 10 minute period... the Conditions are that serious, please report any serious flooding, wind damage, large hail, funnel clouds, or Tornadoes to the National Weather Service office in Taunton at 1-800-330-1147...

They will be VERY busy, so please do not call in reports of lightning damage, loud thunder, or heavy rain... they are not of any concern to the National Weather Service

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0635_warnings.gif


Last edited by Brother Al on Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:23 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Posts : 132
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:59 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
152 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
THOMASTON...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF WOLCOTT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
TORRINGTON BY 205 PM EDT...
NEW HARTFORD AND WINSTED BY 220 PM EDT
...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT USE YOUR CAR TO TRY TO OUTRUN A TORNADO. CARS ARE EASILY
TOSSED AROUND BY TORNADO WINDS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT IN THE PATH OF A
TORNADO...LEAVE THE CAR AND GO TO A STRONG BUILDING. IF NO SAFE
STRUCTURE IS NEARBY...SEEK SHELTER IN A DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL SIZE... DAMAGING WINDS AND REPORTS OF TREES DOWN
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY EMAIL AT ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV
OR ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEAT ... ALBANY.GOV

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Posts : 132
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Age : 41
Location : Westfield, Ma

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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:21 am

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...EASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...CONNECTICUT...MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* HAZARDS...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. HIGHEST THREAT POTENTIAL IS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED IN AREAS OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

* WINDS...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NEAR THE COASTLINES.

* TIMING...4 PM TO MIDNIGHT NEAR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...7 PM TO 4 AM NEAR THE PIONEER VALLEY...WORCESTER HILLS AND ALONG THE COAST.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTH EASTERN/NEW ENGLAND STATES...

IN WAKE OF NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LOWER LEVEL JET STREAM WINDS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WESTERN CAROLINAS INTO WESTERN VA. CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING LOWER LEVEL JET AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP AND PROGRESS NORTH EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:12 pm

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
TORNADO WATCH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
HIGH WIND WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
735 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

TORNADO WATCH


IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH
NASSAU PUTNAM SUFFOLK
WESTCHESTER


IN CONNECTICUT THIS WATCH
MIDDLESEX NEW LONDON FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN

HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM

FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... VERMONT... NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PARTS OF MAINE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARTFORD TOLLAND WINDHAM

MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNSTABLE BRISTOL DUKES
ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET
NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK
WORCESTER


RHODE ISLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISTOL KENT NEWPORT
PROVIDENCE WASHINGTON


NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS

AT 730 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE LINE WAS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE PATH OF THESE SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE
...
BENNINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...
BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
RENSSELAER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
EXTREME EAST CENTRAL SARATOGA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WINDHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...


* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

FOR YOUR SAFETY...GET INSIDE WHEN THESE STORMS APPROACH. WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE BRANCHES. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADS.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Re: NWS Statements

Post by Brother Al on Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:22 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
615 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.


.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THAT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME...AS THIS TROPICAL STORM EMERGES
FROM THE BAHAMAS IT MAY MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A NOREASTER. HOWEVER...THIS STORM MAY VERY WELL JUST MOVE OUT TO SEA AND HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLANDS WEATHER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AS ANY POTENTIAL IMPACT IS STILL 7 TO 9 DAYS IN THE FUTURE! STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE.

_________________
_____________________________________________________________________________
1984 Y84 Trans Am S/E "Recaro Edition" L69 H.O., T-5, 3:73, G80, 54K orig miles
_____________________________________________________________________________
Last of the RPO Y84 Black and Gold Trans Am S/E's"
_____________________________________________________________________________
May the Tin Indian and JZD Rest in Peace
Prius, Proof that people will buy Anything, (Baaaa Baaa)
All the Answers to our Problems can be found in the Boneyard!
God Bless America & those who serve & have served our Country!
avatar
Brother Al
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Posts : 132
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